Summarize and humanize this content to 2000 words in 6 paragraphs in EnglishThe Vancouver Canucks are in Dallas tonight and mathematical elimination is on the table.If the Canucks fall to the Stars, who you’d expect to be motivated given a run of poor performances over the weekend, their fate as a non-playoff team will be locked in. Realistically, however, it’s been locked in for nearly two weeks.As we begin to pivot to the big question of “What comes next?” we wanted to open up the mailbag and answer questions from our VIPs. We had over 100 submissions last weekend and ran Part I yesterday. In Part II we’ll get into why the club regressed this season, Quinn Hughes’ future, the blue-line surplus and whether Elias Pettersson can bounce back.Note: Submitted questions may be edited for clarity and style.Do you think that Petey will return to his previous level? — D GThe short answer is I don’t know.It’s a difficult situation to gauge, partly because we don’t have a good sense of why Pettersson has fallen off in the first place.We think he’s dealt with a knee injury dating back about 100 games because he admitted as much last offseason. We can see he’s not skating as quickly or shooting with as much velocity and we know his performance has sagged precipitously.I worry when I watch him play that he still thinks the game in a way that’s suited to his previous pace. You see this happen sometimes with players coming off of injury; a player struggles to execute what’s in their mind’s eye because they’re a little behind where they expect to be due to a newfound physical reality or limitation. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a recent Canucks example.Eventually, elite players adjust or find a way to train around an injury and overcome it. Ekman-Larsson has bounced back impressively since he was bought out, for example.Because we don’t know much about what Pettersson has dealt with physically, it’s difficult to gauge how likely it is he’ll get back to moving the way he used to. It’s harder still to know whether or not, if his old pace doesn’t return, he can still be a game-breaking presence.At the end of the day, I think you want to bet on talent. And I’ve rarely seen a player with more raw talent than Pettersson.So I’m not going to throw out the strong impression he made across the first 370 games of his NHL career because he’s struggled for 100 games since. I’m also not going to discount what we’ve seen in those 100 games.I’ve started to wonder if the right way to think about Pettersson’s performance is to factor in everything we’ve seen, which would mean slightly downgrading our evaluation of him. We thought, based on what he accomplished in his first five-and-a-half seasons, that he had the potential to be a transcendent NHL superstar. What if he’s more like a Claude Giroux or a Brad Richards-level talent instead? A solid, top-of-the-lineup star centre, but not a Hall of Fame-bound, Art Ross candidate type?Because players like Giroux and Richards had some disappointing seasons in their mid-to-late 20s and re-found their form thereafter.We saw it also with a centre like Pierre-Luc Dubois, who never hit the highs Pettersson previously has but looked like a uniquely imposing two-way force and playmaker for much of his career, and then appeared both limited and disengaged just last season. He was acquired for a song by the Washington Capitals in the summer and has authored an impressive bounce-back this season.I could see Pettersson following a similar path, hopefully without the change of scenery angle baked into it.So, yes, it’s difficult to find historical analogies for Pettersson’s struggles, but they do exist. I’m obviously concerned about the lack of juice he’s shown this season and that the organization itself — across multiple management teams — has worried about his overall preparation and competitive seriousness.That said, I still believe Pettersson is an enormously talented player with the potential to work through this, either because he overcomes whatever he’s been going through physically or adapts his game and finds a way to succeed.
It’s difficult to gauge whether Elias Pettersson will return to his elite game-breaking form. (Danny Murphy / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)What does the next contract for Quinn Hughes project to be with the current salary cap increases the NHL has released? — Kelly H.Hughes isn’t likely to win the Norris Trophy this season, but make no mistake, he performed at a Norris level. There’s even an argument to be made that his contributions were better and more valuable than what he accomplished during the 2023-24 season when he did win the Norris.If he maintains that level across the next two seasons, there will be a case to be made that he’s among the very best players in the NHL. I already think he’s at that level, and that’s an opinion I hold with a very high degree of confidence.Of late, we’re beginning to see $13.25 million to $14 million valuations on elite NHL players, such as Auston Matthews and Leon Draisaitl. And those deals are being negotiated in an $88.5 million cap world. When Hughes’ current contract expires, the upper limit of the NHL salary cap is projected to be in the $113.5 million range.A $13 million valuation, when viewed proportionally to the projected cap increase across the next two seasons, could move into the $16 million- to $17 million-per-year range. We’re still a long ways off and we’ll see how the market evolves now that the flat cap era is behind us, but on the back of a napkin, that’s where I’d be projecting Hughes’ next contract to land.How different will Quinn Hughes’ trade value be this summer, with two years left, versus next summer, with only one year left? A lot of variables I’m sure, but I can’t help but think his peak value is sooner than later, as teams would want time to convince him to stay wherever that is as well. — Stefan R.Although Hughes is still a year away from being extension eligible, his Canucks future is sure to dominate the conversation for the foreseeable future.This isn’t new. Pettersson’s future was a multiyear topic once upon a time, and Bo Horvat’s before that. In the past, Henrik and Daniel Sedin’s futures were widely fretted.This is how it works in Vancouver, but there’s no reason for fans to panic. Hughes has some unique considerations, given that both of his brothers play for the same team, but for all of the non-stop handwringing in the Vancouver market about this star leaving or that star leaving over the years, the truth is the Canucks organization actually has a very good track record of getting their own players signed.As for Hughes’ value and whether it will decrease as he gets closer to unrestricted free agency, there really isn’t much benefit in exploring the trade market or gauging prices for his services this summer versus next summer. In fact, realistically, his value would be at its highest when he’s eligible to discuss an extension, which he isn’t able to do until next summer.The Mikko Rantanen trade to Dallas is an instructive example. Part of the negotiations between the Stars and the Carolina Hurricanes was to permit Rantanen to work out a long-term deal with the Stars, and Dallas then paid a price that reflected the acquisition of Rantanen as a long-term piece, not as a rental player.Trading Hughes with two years left on his deal isn’t how you hit a home run return (not that any trade return would outweigh the value Hughes provides). Trading Hughes with a pre-negotiated eight-year extension in hand is how you maximize your return. And that isn’t an option until next summer, and in any event, isn’t something the club would realistically consider unless Hughes himself forces the issue.In the meantime, just relax. Hughes plays for the Canucks and that’s the coolest thing about this team.Gauging his market value is beside the point this summer. Building a contending team that can give him an opportunity to win is the whole ball game.If you could rate, in your opinion, the reasons this club regressed so much this season it might make for an interesting read! — Daniel D.Let’s go with the top-five reasons the Canucks took such a significant step back this season:1. Injuries: During 2023-24, Hughes, Pettersson, J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, Filip Hronek and Conor Garland were available to play in all 82 games (several of those players didn’t play in a meaningless game 82, but were healthy for it). Aside from Thatcher Demko’s late-season injury, the Canucks dealt with a remarkable run of health from their top contributors. This season, only Teddy Blueger and Jake DeBrusk have been available for all 77 of the games so far, and nearly all of Vancouver’s stars missed significant stretches with injury.2. Overtime: Vancouver fared very poorly in overtime and the shootout this season, winning just eight of its 21 games that went beyond regulation. Among all NHL teams, only the Buffalo Sabres were outscored by a wider margin in three-on-three situations. That hurt.3. Backup goaltending: Over the 48 games Kevin Lankinen was credited with a result in this season, the Canucks compiled 57 points. That’s a 97-point pace extrapolated over 82 games. Demko, however, was inconsistent while working his way back from a severe knee injury last season (and then back spasms, and then a subsequent lower-body injury). Demko started 22 games but left two early with injury, and the Canucks compiled 21 points across his 20 decisions — an 86-point pace. As for Artūrs Šilovs, Vancouver won just two of his nine starts — both against the Chicago Blackhawks — picking up five of 18 possible points in his starts. The result in games Lankinen didn’t play cost Vancouver dearly.4. Lack of offence: Vancouver generated 24.5 shots on goal per hour at five-on-five this season. That’s abysmal. Only the Blackhawks created shots at a lower rate at even strength. This is a persistent problem and something the club dealt with in 2023-24 as well. Last season, the Canucks relied on league-best shooting efficiency to mask the issue, but this year, even though they still ranked among the 10 most efficient finishing teams at five-on-five, it wasn’t enough. Pettersson’s persistent struggles were a major factor.5. Inconsistent effort level: There’s just no sugarcoating it. The Canucks thrived as a max-effort, super-disciplined group last season. This year, there were far too many nights — especially in November, December and January — in which they looked distracted or even borderline disinterested. That killed the Canucks and is something they desperately need to fix next season.
If Thatcher Demko remains healthy, the Canucks should be well above average in net next season. (Anne-Marie Sorvin / Imagn Images)What are the reasons the club did poorly this year that make you think it was a fluke, and that they should bounce back from next year? — Ian M.Let’s go over the top-five from our previous answer and see what’s real and what’s likely to regress.Injuries are often just bad luck. A dirty Tanner Jeannot hit here, a bad angle hit into the wall there or an oblique injury exacerbated by a compensation injury during recovery there.Based on “cap hit of injured players,” NHL Injury Viz estimates Vancouver was the seventh-most impacted team by injuries this season. That probably bounces back a bit. The Canucks were unlucky in a way we wouldn’t expect to continue.As for the overtime record, that was a product, in my mind, largely of the club spending an awful lot of its year with only one reliable three-on-three option (Hughes). Remember when Vincent Desharnais was out there for three-on-three shifts in November? My lord.With Hronek healthy, Marcus Pettersson in the fold, Victor Mancini offering some pace and Tom Willander a strong candidate to play NHL games next season, that issue should be more or less fixed. Overtime and shootout results are generally pretty random, and while I don’t buy that Vancouver’s issues were luck-based this season, you’d still expect the Canucks to regress and be better in that area.As for the backup goaltending question, provided Demko ends this season fully healthy, is retained by the Canucks for next season and has a full offseason to train and prepare, you’d expect Vancouver will have the talent in goal to be well above average in net next season. A lot of this hinges on Demko, but the Canucks ranked 26th in the NHL in save percentage this season, and you’d think they have the talent in goal to be better than that.Vancouver’s offensive output is a big concern, especially given where Pettersson’s game has been at across the last 100 or so games he’s played dating back to the 2024 All-Star break. This is an area I could see the Canucks being just as feckless in next season without a serious infusion of forward talent this summer.As for the effort level, I legitimately think the Canucks put their midseason doldrums behind them after the Miller trade. The results may not have been there, but this team has brought it with far more consistency over the past few months.I’m not going to tell you that the Canucks profile as a slam-dunk bounce-back team likely to contend on regression alone next season. They don’t, not with the question marks surrounding their forward group.At least some of what went wrong this season, however, is more likely than not to prove ephemeral.Just a year ago the D-corps was so-so with the UFAs and after the summer many of us were stunned by the terrible offseason. Now, however, they seem almost overcrowded. Will they use that strength to trade for a young forward/centre? — Kent111NEverything has to be on the table for Jim Rutherford and Patrik Allvin in terms of adding elite forward talent to their lineup this summer, and that includes strongly considering dealing from their newfound surplus on the back end to address their shortfall up front.There are a few notable factors to consider here. The first is that, traditionally, Rutherford’s teams have been heavy on skill and speed up front, while patching together a blue-line group that’s more than the sum of its parts on the back end. This team, as currently constructed, is built in the exact opposite way of Rutherford’s typical preferences.Secondly, any time you can deal from an area of surplus to address an area of need, best practice would suggest you should strongly consider it. And I wonder if the Canucks will do so.It’s fascinating to me that they have leaned so heavily down the stretch here on Mancini playing up the lineup with Hughes. They have one of their top prospects in Willander coming, and a pair of other top-four capable players in Hronek and Tyler Myers already in the fold.Is Mancini being showcased in this role down the stretch? Or could the Canucks be gathering information on his fit alongside Hughes, with an eye toward consideration their options to swing an even larger deal involving a high-value prospect like Willander? Or, perhaps, even a high-value top-of-the-lineup piece like Hronek, who has a no-movement clause that doesn’t kick in until July 1 — a topic no one in the Vancouver market ever discusses because we’re often too focused on Pettersson?Rolling with extra blue-line depth is never a bad policy, especially as a West Coast team that logs more travel miles than nearly any other NHL club on an annual basis. If Vancouver is going to find the sort of top-end forward talent it requires, however, especially on a truncated timeline, it may have to at least consider trading even higher-value pieces to achieve it.Not only do I think the Canucks have to consider it, I actually wonder if we’re already seeing them begin to gather intel with their late-season blue-line deployment to potentially inform their decision-making this summer.(Top photo of Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson: Bob Frid / Imagn Images)
