The National League East (NL East) is shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball for the 2024 season, with the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, and New York Mets all appearing capable of making deep postseason runs. The re-signing of Pete Alonso by the Mets has added fuel to the already heated rivalry, leaving many to wonder which team will emerge as the favorite. In an effort to find clarity, I reached out to MLB scouts and executives for their takes on the division race. Surprisingly, the more people I spoke to, the murkier the picture became. A poll of seven experts—not affiliated with the Braves, Phillies, or Mets—revealed that each could make a case for more than one team winning the division. Ultimately, the predictions were split: three picked the Phillies, two favored the Braves, and two believed the Mets would take the title. This divided opinion underscores just how competitive the NL East is expected to be this year.
One overarching theme that emerged from these conversations was the importance of health and momentum in October. Several experts pointed out that in recent years, the postseason success of teams like the Phillies and Mets has shown that winning the division isn’t always the deciding factor. Instead, it’s about being hot and healthy late in the season, even if that means entering the playoffs as a wild-card team. The Phillies, for example, eliminated the division-winning Braves in back-to-back seasons, while the Mets took down the Phillies in 2023 despite not winning the division themselves. This shift in the playoff landscape has made it clear that teams can’t put too much stock in regular-season results alone. As one executive noted, “The bigger question may be whether any of them can beat the Dodgers.” Still, the fun of predicting a division winner is hard to resist, which is why the NL East remains one of the most intriguing storylines heading into the season.
The human vote from scouts and executives deviates from the projections of notable statistical systems like FanGraphs and PECOTA. Both systems predict the Braves will bounce back from an injury-plagued 2023 season to win the division. FanGraphs projects the Braves to secure 93.4 wins, significantly ahead of the Phillies (87.4) and Mets (86.7). PECOTA, on the other hand, forecasts a closer race, with the Braves (92 wins) narrowly edging out the Mets (91) and Phillies (87.9). Despite these differences, both systems agree that all three teams are likely to reach the postseason, just as they did last year. The analytical edge given to the Braves is largely based on the assumption that they’ll be healthier in 2024 after losing key players like Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña to season-ending injuries last year. However, not everyone is convinced. Baseball insiders expressed concerns about lingering effects from these injuries and pointed to the Braves’ underwhelming offseason as reasons to doubt their projections.
The Phillies, who had a quiet winter themselves, earned the most votes from the scouts and executives. They made a few strategic moves, including trading for lefty starter Jesús Luzardo and signing Jordan Romano to bolster their bullpen, which faltered in the NLDS last year. The Phillies’ strength lies in their deep starting rotation, headlined by Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, and a lineup that has consistently delivered in clutch moments. One executive who picked the Phillies noted, “They didn’t need to do much. They ran into a buzzsaw in the Mets last year, but they’ve still got a really good lineup and the best starting rotation in the division.” Others echoed this sentiment, pointing to the team’s veteran leadership and lack of major question marks. The Phillies’ quiet confidence and desire to prove themselves after last year’s postseason loss make them a formidable contender.
The Mets, meanwhile, are a wildcard in many ways, with their success largely hinging on the performance of their starting rotation. The team made significant offseason moves, including the signings of Kodai Senga, Frankie Montas, and Clay Holmes, but there are concerns about the durability and consistency of their pitching staff. Sean Manaea is the most reliable arm in the rotation, but even he has to prove he can sustain the success he found in the second half of 2023. On the offensive side, the Mets are loaded, with Pete Alonso and Juan Soto leading the charge. One scout raved about Soto’s potential impact, likening it to his production with the Yankees. However, doubts about the rotation persist. “I like their team, but I honestly am not sure what to make of that rotation,” said one scout. Despite these uncertainties, two experts believed in the Mets’ ability to win 95 games, citing the team’s deep pitching depth and the astute decision-making of GM David Stearns.
Ultimately, the NL East is shaping up to be the toughest division in baseball. While the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals are rebuilding or attempting to reach .500, respectively, the Braves, Phillies, and Mets are all legitimate playoff-caliber teams. The division race could very well come down to the wire, with each team facing its own set of challenges. Some believe the Braves’ lineup and pitching depth will carry them to the top, while others see the Phillies’ rotation and veteran leadership as the deciding factor. Then there’s the Mets, who could either dominate or struggle to find consistency. As one scout put it, “It really is a beast of a division. It could well be a three-team race to the wire.” Whether or not any of these teams can dethrone the Dodgers remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the NL East will be appointment viewing all season long.
