The 2025 men’s NCAA tournament bracket has officially dropped, and if you’re a fan of upsets, this year’s edition is shaping up to be a thrilling ride. For the past 20 years, we’ve been tracking and predicting NCAA tournament upsets, and this year, something feels different. Historically, many of our top potential “Bracket Breakers” (those plucky underdogs who crash the party and bust brackets) fail to make the tournament because they fall short in their conference tournaments. But this year, nearly all of our top candidates secured their spots in the field of 68. To make things even more intriguing, many of these underdogs have been paired with vulnerable higher-seeded teams—think UC San Diego and Michigan—setting the stage for what could be a historic number of upsets. According to our projections, there are eight first-round matchups with a 30% or higher chance of an upset, up from six last year. March Madness is officially here, and the possibilities are endless.
As we dive into the 2025 tournament, our team is back in the “Bracket Breakers bunker,” feeding data into our trusty predictive model, Slingshot. For years, we’ve used advanced metrics to identify the telltale statistical markers of Cinderella stories—teams that defy the odds and make memories that last a lifetime. We’ve successfully predicted some of the most iconic upsets in tournament history, from VCU’s magical run to the 2011 Final Four to last year’s Oakland squad, which turned heads and shattered brackets. And this year, our numbers are pointing to a fresh wave of potential bracket-busters ready to make their mark. If you’re new to our Bracket Breaker series, now’s the perfect time to dive in—our method combines deep statistical analysis with a layer of cluster analysis to group teams into archetypes, allowing us to predict matchups with remarkable accuracy. The result? A list of the 10 most likely first-round upsets to watch.
Over the next few days, we’ll break down every first-round matchup where the seed difference is five or more, our threshold for what qualifies as a “true upset.” We’ll also take a closer look at the odds for every potential second-round matchup that fits the Bracket Breaker bill. But first, let’s start with the first-round games that have our attention. Slingshot has been working overtime, crunching the numbers to identify the most likely upsets. After creating basic power ratings and adjusting them based on how closely each team matches the profiles of past underdogs (Davids) and vulnerable favorites (Goliaths), the model has zeroed in on 10 matchups that could redefine your bracket. Here’s the list:
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*No. 11 San Diego State vs. No. 6 Ole Miss* (Upset chance: 43.9%)
(This one hinges on San Diego State defeating North Carolina in the play-in game first.) -
No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 BYU (Upset chance: 43.1%)
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No. 12 Colorado State vs. No. 5 Memphis (Upset chance: 42.2%)
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No. 12 UC San Diego vs. No. 5 Michigan (Upset chance: 37.7%)
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No. 11 Drake vs. No. 6 Missouri (Upset chance: 33.7%)
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*No. 11 North Carolina vs. No. 6 Ole Miss* (Upset chance: 32%)
(This one depends on North Carolina getting past San Diego State in the play-in game.) -
No. 12 Liberty vs. No. 5 Oregon (Upset chance: 31.4%)
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No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Clemson (Upset chance: 30.9%)
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No. 13 High Point vs. No. 4 Purdue (Upset chance: 28.4%)
- *No. 12 Xavier vs. No. 5 Illinois* (Upset chance: 26.9%)
(This one requires Xavier to come out on top of Texas in the play-in game.)
These matchups represent the best opportunities for underdogs to pull off the unthinkable, and we’ll be diving deeper into each of them in the days to come. For now, let’s take a closer look at why this year’s field is so primed for chaos.
What’s so special about this year’s tournament? For starters, the fact that so many of our top Bracket Breaker candidates made the field is a rarity. Historically, even the most promising underdogs often fall short in their conference tournaments, leaving us to wonder what could have been. But this year, fate has smiled upon us. Teams like UC San Diego, VCU, and Drake—all of whom have the statistical profile of classic Cinderellas—have secured their spots and drawn favorable matchups against higher-seeded opponents with vulnerabilities. Add to that the sheer number of games with a 30% or higher upset chance, and you’ve got all the ingredients for a March Madness for the ages. Whether you’re a die-hard college basketball fan or just filling out a bracket for the office pool, this year’s tournament promises to deliver plenty of drama.
As we count down to tip-off, let’s not forget the importance of context. March Madness isn’t just about the numbers—it’s about the stories. It’s about the small schools from towns you’ve never heard of, the players who’ve been overlooked but refuse to be underestimated, and the coaches who devise game plans that confound the Goliaths. It’s about the moments that make us cheer, cry, and scream at our televisions (and, let’s be honest, at our brackets). And this year, the math is on our side. With Slingshot’s predictions as our guide, we’re poised to navigate the chaos and predict the unpredictable. Stay tuned for our in-depth previews of these matchups and more—it’s about to get very interesting.
In the meantime, here’s a snapshot of the top matchups to keep an eye on: games like San Diego State vs. Ole Miss, which hinges on the Aztecs first navigating a play-in game against North Carolina, and VCU vs. BYU, where the Rams’ stifling defense could give the Cougars fits. Then there’s UC San Diego vs. Michigan, a game that could expose the Wolverines’ weaknesses, and Colorado State vs. Memphis, where the Rams’ balanced attack might be too much for the Tigers to handle. And let’s not overlook Liberty vs. Oregon, where the Flames’ 3-point shooting could rain on the Ducks’ parade. These are just a few of the matchups that have our Bracket Breaker radar buzzing, and each carries the potential to send shockwaves through the bracket.
Of course, no conversation about March Madness would be complete without mentioning the underdogs who could become this year’s Cinderella stories. Teams like Drake, Xavier, and High Point are flying under the radar but have the numbers to suggest they could Pull off something special. Drake, for instance, is a scrappy team with the pace and efficiency to outlast more heralded opponents. Xavier, if they can get past Texas in the play-in game, has the athleticism and depth to give Illinois fits. And High Point, a No. 13 seed, has the kind of rim protection and perimeter shooting to test a Purdue team that’s struggled in tournament settings before. These are the teams that could turn the bracket on its head and make your friends wonder how you knew.
As the madness unfolds, one thing is certain: this year’s tournament is a Numbers lover’s paradise. With data on our side, we’re not just hoping for upsets—we’re predicting them. And while there’s no crystal ball in sports, the math gives us a roadmap to the chaos. So grab your bracket, stock up on snacks, and get ready to witness what promises to be one of the most unpredictable tournaments in recent memory. Whether you’re a Bracket Breaker believer or just along for the ride, March Madness 2025 is about to deliver.
