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By JAMES TAPSFIELD, POLITICAL EDITOR FOR MAILONLINE Published: 16:55, 19 March 2025 | Updated: 16:59, 19 March 2025
More than 3.6million working-age people in the UK could be inactive due to sickness by 2030, according to grim official projections. That would be 61 per cent more than before Covid in 2019 – and equivalent to one in 12 of the total workforce aged 16-64.The stark figures were released by the Department for Work & Pensions as part of the Keep Britain Working independent review.They emerged as Keir Starmer fights to quell a Labour revolt on his plans to curb the spiralling benefits bill – in part by raising the bar for getting health-related handouts. Someone is classed as economically inactive if fall into the age band, do not have a job and are not looking for one.An Office for National Statistics survey asks whether they have sought work in the past four weeks, or could start a job within the next fortnight. The results are weighted to represent the wider population – although they cannot be directly correlated with benefits claims.
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The individuals are not described as unemployed, which refers to people with no job but actively seeking work.The proportion of the UK workforce who were economically inactive because of sickness stood at 5.4 per cent in 2019.The new projections suggest that could rise to 8 per cent in 2030 if current trends continue.In contrast, the proportion who are economically inactive for all other reasons – including study, caring duties or early retirement – is seen as falling, from 15.3 per cent to 12.1 per cent.Other ONS data have indicated that could be down to more women opting to work rather than staying at home to look after families. The DWP said: ‘It is important to note that these projections are based on trends seen over an unprecedented period of change.’These are not forecasts of what will happen but projections of what could happen if these trends were to continue.’The DWP report draws on data from the Annual Population Survey, Labour Force Survey and the latest Office for National Statistics population projections.Some 2.89million people in the UK in 2024 were estimated to be economically inactive thanks to sickness with a work-limiting health condition, or 6.7 per cent of the total workforce.That was up from 2.16million, or 5.3 per cent, in 2015.The proportion of the workforce economically inactive because of sickness but who do not have a work-limiting health condition is unchanged across this period at 0.3 per cent.Meanwhile, a growing percentage of the workforce are in employment despite having a health condition.The proportion who are employed but who also have a work-limiting health condition has risen from 6.4 per cent in 2015 to 9.5 per cent in 2024.
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3.6MILLION working-age people in the UK – one in 12 of the total – could be inactive due to sickness by 2030, report warns
