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Director Ryan Coogler and star Michael B. Jordan’s R-rated horror thriller “Sinners” was No. 1 at the box office over the weekend, earning $45 million domestically and $61 million globally. Those ticket sales, the biggest debut in post-pandemic times for an original film, are a testament to Coogler and Jordan’s box office bankability. They also prove to Hollywood that audiences will show up for more than just superhero sequels and time-tested action franchises.
But “Sinners” will need to continue a strong run in multiplexes to turn a profit. That’s because the studio spent $90 million to produce the film and roughly $50 million to $60 million on global marketing expenses. Since theater owners keep half of ticket sales, “Sinners” needs to gross around $200 million to $225 million globally in order to breakeven theatrically, according to knowledgable sources. Coogler’s deal reportedly gives the director first-dollar gross, which means he gets a cut of revenues before the film is profitable. Although “Sinners” is starting slow internationally, earning $15.4 million last weekend from 71 markets, box office watchers believe the film’s glowing reviews will provide the momentum needed to stick around on the big screen.
“This is an excellent opening for a period horror film. Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan are as talented and popular as they get,” says David A. Gross, who runs the FranchiseRe movie consulting firm. But “the enormous production cost is going to cast a long shadow and set a high bar to profitability.”
Here are five reasons why “Sinners” scored big with North American audiences in its opening weekend:
Coogler and Jordan are big box office draws
Having partnered on commercial winners like “Rocky” spinoff “Creed” and Marvel’s “Black Panther,” the duo had already demonstrated a flair for producing the type of cinematic spectacles that sell tickets. Audiences have awarded sterling CinemaScore exit poll grades to all of Coogler’s prior directorial efforts: “Fruitvale Station” (A), “Creed” (A), “Black Panther” (A+), “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (A). And those films have grossed a combined $2.4 billion globally, giving the 38-year-old Coogler an unmatched track record for a director of his generation. Meanwhile Jordan’s directorial debut “Creed III” wound up as the highest-grossing entry in the trilogy with $275 million.
The success of an original story like “Sinners,” which doesn’t have the benefit of brand awareness, has established the pair as the rare talent in Hollywood whose involvement in a project is the brand that drives audiences to theaters.
“‘Sinners’ combines great filmmaking with major star power,” says senior Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian.”
In a sign of Warner Bros.’ faith in Coogler, the company outbid other studios and agreed to let the director eventually own the copyright for “Sinners” after 25 years. Quentin Tarantino, who arranged a similar deal with Sony for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” is one of the only other directors to wield that kind of leverage. Will Coogler get the same treatment for future projects? After this weekend, studio executives around town will be eager to greenlight whatever Coogler does next — especially if he’s collaborating with Jordan.
Audiences sang the praises of “Sinners”
Jordan pulls off double duty in the 1930s-set “Sinners,” playing identical twins Smoke and Stack who return home to the South after World War I and open a juke joint… only for vampires to descend on the small town. Critics have been singing the praises of “Sinners,” which boasts a near-perfect 98% Rotten Tomatoes average. And now moviegoers, too, have rapturously received the movie, which earned an “A” grade on CinemaScore exit polls. That’s significant because “Sinners” is the only horror film in 35 years to receive an “A” grade, according to Warner Bros.
Horror has long been a reliable theatrical draw because it’s fun to experience jump scares in communal settings. And while terrifying movies are typically critic-proof at the box office, audiences tend to leave the theater feeling unsettled, which translates to poor exit polls. Clearly that wasn’t the case with “Sinners,” which should benefit in the coming weeks from excellent word of mouth.
“The film has been extremely well-received and should have a good run now,” says Gross.
Millennial and Gen Z moviegoers wanted to “dance with the devil“
Younger crowds were particularly interested in the paranormal exploits of the film’s bloodsuckers. According to exit polls, 64% of audiences were 35 years or younger with 25 to 34 year olds representing the largest segment of opening weekend crowds (46%). A funny fact: Since “Sinners” is rated R, only 2% of patrons were under 18 years old, but that segment was the most enthusiastic — the only ones to award the film a coveted “A+” grade on CinemaScore. Meanwhile, 40% of initial ticket buyers were Black, while 35% were white, 18% were Hispanic and 5% were Asian, reflecting a strong turnout among different demographics.
“Michael B. Jordan is enormously popular among all audiences,” says Gross. “The movie is appealing to all groups, with Black moviegoers leading the way.”
Power of premium formats
Prior to the release of “Sinners,” Coogler gave cinephiles and more casual moviegoers a quick film lesson, breaking down intricate topics like aspect ratios and film formats — from Ultra Panavision 70, which crops the screen differently than 70mm Imax — to provide viewing context before buying tickets.
His video PSA paid off: About half of opening weekend crowds opted to pay extra to watch “Sinners,” which was filmed with Imax cameras, on the biggest and brightest screens. Premium large formats, including Imax, Dolby and dozens of others, accounted for 45% of ticket sales with Imax alone representing 20% of revenues.
“Imax locations are sold out for days,” says Warner Bros. global distribution chief Jeff Goldstein.
Sustained enthusiasm for premium screens, a format championed by filmmakers like Christopher Nolan and Denis Villeneuve, has been a major win for studios and theater owners because admission for those auditoriums are pricier than the average movie ticket.
“Ryan’s an amazing partner — a visionary filmmaker and lifelong Imax fan,” said Imax’s CEO Rich Gelfond. “He proved yet again that when you lean into Imax, good things will happen creatively and commercially.”
Rising tide lifts all boats
After a series of theatrical misfires, Disney’s “Snow White” and “The Alto Knights” included, the box office is finally regaining steam. People are back in the habit of moviegoing, and that’s thanks in part to the global phenomenon of “A Minecraft Movie” (now well on its way to $1 billion in ticket sales). It’s a truism in the movie theater business that success begets success, and the momentum of “Minecraft” likely helped fuel interest in a very different kind of blockbuster. That’s good news for Marvel’s “Thunderbolts” (May 2) and “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (May 23) which could capitalize on the domestic success of “Sinners” to keep auditoriums packed.
“With ‘Sinners,’ ‘Minecraft’ and others, AMC Theatres saw first-hand this weekend how a wide variety of movies in the marketplace will draw audiences in significant numbers to theaters,” said the cinema chain’s CEO Adam Aron. “We look forward with great excitement to the deluge of big movie titles that will be gracing our theaters during the coming peak summer movie season.”
