The world of office Oscar pools is as cutthroat as it gets when it comes to predicting the winners of Hollywood’s biggest night. While many folks are content to toss in a few bucks into the office pool or make a friendly wager with their coworkers, there’s another way to get in on the action: online sports betting through platforms like DraftKings. For a small investment—even just a dollar on a long-shot underdog—you could find yourself in the black if your prediction comes true. Of course, this is only possible if you happen to live in one of the eight states where DraftKings legally offers Oscar betting. The legalization of online gambling has expanded significantly over the past decade, and DraftKings has been quick to capitalize on this trend, offering Oscar bets since the 2019 ceremony. That year, many users placed their hopes—and their money—on Yorgos Lanthimos to win Best Director for “The Favourite,” only to see Alfonso Cuarón take home the award for “Roma.”
As the years have passed, DraftKings’ approach to setting the odds for the Oscars has remained largely unchanged. The company relies heavily on the outcomes of other awards ceremonies, such as the BAFTAs and the SAG Awards, which have historically served as indicators of where Academy voters’ allegiances lie. Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ director of race and sports operations, compares Oscar betting to sports betting but notes a key difference: while sports betting relies on a wealth of data points like offensive efficiency and team performance, Oscar odds are determined by a much more subjective set of factors. “Don’t compare the Oscars with football,” Avello says. “With the Oscars, we’re going off what we see and other award shows. There’s not much data besides that.” This makes setting the lines for the Oscars a uniquely challenging task, relying as much on intuition as on hard data.
Despite the usual reliance on award show outcomes, this year’s Oscars presented a unique challenge for DraftKings’ odds-makers. The emergence of a scandal involving “Emilia Pérez” star Karla Sofía Gascón, whose resurfaced racist posts sparked widespread backlash, forced the company to adjust its lines. What had once been a strong contender for Best Picture suddenly found itself with only a two-percent chance to win, according to Avello. “This movie’s just lost all steam,” he says. “There’s nobody interested in touching it.” The scandal marked a rare instance where external events outside the usual awards circuit had a direct impact on the betting lines, underscoring the unpredictable nature of the Oscars betting landscape.
Not every controversy during awards season has the same impact, however. For instance, the revelation that Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones’ accents in “The Brutalist” were adjusted using AI technology made headlines but didn’t translate to any changes in the betting lines, according to Avello. Similarly, press coverage of anonymous Oscar ballots and predictions from industry prognosticators don’t typically influence the odds. However, these factors can have an indirect effect by shaping bettors’ behavior. A sudden influx of money on a particular contender can lead to adjustments in the lines, as has been the case this year in the supporting actress category. While “Emilia Pérez” star Zoe Saldaña remains the heavy frontrunner, “Wicked” star Ariana Grande has emerged as an underdog favorite, thanks in part to the public’s enthusiasm for her performance.
The dynamics at play in the supporting actress category highlight the interplay between value, popularity, and controversy in Oscar betting. “Saldaña can overcome any controversy for that movie, I believe,” Avello says. “But Grande, at six to one, has 70% of the money in this category.” Grande’s higher odds make her a more attractive bet for those looking for a potential payday, even though she hasn’t won any major awards this season. This phenomenon isn’t unique to the supporting actress category. In the costume design race, “Wicked” is the strong favorite, but “Nosferatu” has become a “value play” at 14/1 odds, attracting more money from users drawn to its long-shot potential. Meanwhile, Demi Moore’s odds for Best Actress have seen a dramatic shift, from 40/1 in the fall to frontrunner status—yet another example of how quickly the Oscars betting landscape can change.
Despite the excitement surrounding these dramatic shifts, it’s worth noting that the Oscars represent a relatively small part of DraftKings’ business. “One football game will do more than the Oscars will do across all categories,” Avello admits. While the company has seen a steady increase in Oscar bets each year, the growth is far more modest compared to the explosive popularity of sports betting. For now, the Oscars remain a niche market, with DraftKings prioritizing the most popular categories like Best Picture, Best Director, and the acting races due to their broader appeal. Yet, even as the company continues to expand its offerings, there’s no guarantee that Oscar betting will ever reach the same level as sports betting—a reality underscored by the fact that DraftKings isn’t even legal in California, the heart of the film industry. Still, as Avello says with a smile, “You never know.”
