The Oscar race, which has been unusually wide open this season, may have just found its frontrunner. Sean Baker’s Brooklyn-set comedy, Anora, made a significant leap forward over the weekend by winning top honors at both the Producers Guild Awards (PGA) and the Directors Guild Awards (DGA). These victories, coming from two of the most closely watched precursors to the Academy Awards, have catapulted Anora into the spotlight as the film to beat for Best Picture at the Oscars. With award season in full swing, the competition has been fierce, with half a dozen films considered legitimate contenders for the top prize. But Anora has reemerged as a powerhouse, solidifying its position after a series of wins that have shaken up the race.
Anora, which stars Mikey Madison as a Brooklyn exotic dancer who marries the son of a Russian oligarch, initially garnered attention after winning the prestigious Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. However, as the award season progressed, other films such as The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez took turns in the spotlight, making the race feel more unpredictable than ever. But with its recent wins at the PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice Awards, Anora has proven itself to be a formidable contender. The PGA’s Darryl F. Zanuck Award, which Anora won on Saturday night, has a strong track record of predicting the Oscar for Best Picture, matching the Academy’s choice in 16 of the last 21 years. Similarly, the DGA’s top prize has aligned with the Oscars’ Best Director award in 66 out of 74 cases, making Sean Baker the clear favorite to win Best Director—a category filled entirely with first-time nominees this year.
The guild ceremonies, held in Beverly Hills, California, also brought recognition to other films. RaMell Ross’ Nickel Boys, which is also nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars, was named the best first film by the PGA. Ross’ narrative film debut tells a powerful story and has resonated with voters, further diversifying the pool of contenders. Meanwhile, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez, which leads the Oscar nominations with 13 nods, has seen its momentum falter due to waves of backlash and controversy. Despite its impressive number of nominations, the Netflix film’s chances of winning Best Picture have diminished, leaving room for Anora and others to step into the spotlight.
Another category that found clarity over the weekend was Best Animated Film. At the Annie Awards, DreamWorks Animation’s The Wild Robot swept the competition, taking home nine awards, including Best Film. This victory positions The Wild Robot as the heavy favorite to win the Best Animated Film category at the Oscars on March 2. While this category is often seen as a predictable one, The Wild Robot’s dominance at the Annie Awards has all but sealed its fate as the frontrunner.
As Oscar voting begins on Tuesday, the race remains far from over, but Anora’s momentum is undeniable. With its wins at the PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice Awards, the film has built a strong case for why it should take home Best Picture. Baker’s unique storytelling and the film’s timely themes have resonated with voters across multiple guilds, and its success at these ceremonies bodes well for its Oscar chances. However, with films like The Brutalist and Nickel Boys still in the mix, the competition is far from over. The next few weeks will be crucial as voters finalize their ballots and the remaining precursors unfold, but for now, Anora has established itself as the film to beat.
In a season marked by unpredictability and a unusually wide-open field, Anora has ridden a wave of critical acclaim and guild support to emerge as the Oscars’ most likely Best Picture winner. With its wins at the PGA and DGA, Sean Baker’s film has proven itself to be a force to be reckoned with, and its success at the Critics Choice Awards only adds to its momentum. As the industry prepares for the final stretch of award season, all eyes will be on Anora to see if it can maintain its lead and ultimately claim the top prize at the Academy Awards.
