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So, is this rare reproach and economic threat responsible for some sort of shift in Moscow? Is that the reason Trump and his aides believe they’re nearer a deal? Or is Zelenskyy the one caving?
No matter what, a healthy dose of skepticism remains in order. Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov appeared to harden Moscow’s position on annexed territories in eastern Ukraine in an interview this weekend. And we’ve heard optimistic noises from the Trump administration about the proximity of a deal before. Further caution is also advisable, as the deal’s broad contours have not actually shifted much: It still includes Ukraine never joining NATO, effectively ceding much of the territory Russia has occupied, U.S. recognition of the Crimean peninsula, and lifting sanctions on Russia.
The U.S. position is that in return, Ukraine will be given a “robust security guarantee” by European countries and other friendly states acting as guarantors, but the details on that are murky. And in addition to deeper energy and economic cooperation between the U.S. and Russia, Kyiv will have to sign a minerals deal giving the U.S. half of the revenue from its natural resources, while the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant — controlled by Kyiv but operated by the U.S. — will have to supply both Ukraine and Russia with electricity.
There is no doubt this is a terrible deal for Ukraine. The bloodletting may halt, but not only will Kyiv emerge from this brutal war dismembered, it will also have no credible security guarantee, as Washington is declining to backstop the Europeans. There will be no accountability for documented Russian war crimes, nor will there be any clear compensation from Moscow, as far as we know, for the damage it inflicted. (While the latter is included in the text, there’s no explanation of where the money will come from — or how much.)
This is hardly the “peace through strength” strategy that Trump’s increasingly sidelined Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg had outlined: “We tell the Ukrainians, ‘You’ve got to come to the table, and if you don’t come to the table, support from the United States will dry up.’ And you tell Putin, ‘He’s got to come to the table and if you don’t come to the table, then we’ll give Ukrainians everything they need to kill you in the field,’” Kellogg had said.
But only half of that equation was put into effect. Ukraine is the only party making concessions. Furthermore, this will mark the first time in postwar history that European borders will be redrawn by force of arms — a bad precedent in itself.
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