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The timing of their messaging, however, is unlikely a coincidence. Le Pen last week was found guilty of misappropriating European Parliament funds and hit with an immediate five-year ban on running for public office, which will knock her out of the 2027 presidential election unless an appeals court rules in her favor.
Since the verdict, party officials have focused much of their public messaging on framing the case as a judicial witch hunt against Le Pen, who polling shows as the front-runner for the next presidential election. But the underlying threat of eventually voting to topple the government has lingered.
Officials within pro-government ranks had expressed concerns before the verdict was delivered that Le Pen’s judicial troubles could prompt the party to adopt a more aggressive posture toward Bayrou’s minority government, which needs at least the tacit support of part of the opposition to remain in power.
As the largest single party in the French National Assembly, the National Rally plays a crucial role in determining the government’s survival. The party has so far refrained from supporting motions of no confidence against Bayrou put forward by left-wing opposition groups.
The pro-government officials who tied the National Rally’s threats to the government to Le Pen’s verdict point to the fate of Barnier, who appeared to enjoy tacit support from the far right throughout most of his short tenure. Yet after prosecutors announced they would seek a ban on Le Pen running for public office in November, the National Rally helped torpedo the government despite having secured valuable concessions on policy.
The National Rally could try to move the goalposts on its legislative priorities as a pretext to bring down Bayrou. During his interview, Chenu said the long-standing debate over pensions, which Bayrou initially opened the door to revisiting before backtracking, as potential grounds for no confidence.
A government collapse would increase pressure on President Emmanuel Macron to call new elections this summer, as France’s majority-less, fragmented legislature continues to struggle with instability and deadlock. Le Pen, who presides over the National Rally group in the National Assembly, would not be allowed to run for reelection due to the ineligibility sentence issued against her.
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