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Most officials, however, say that Donohoe is likely to cling on to his job, although a three-horse race dents his chances of being reelected at the first round.
If no one wins an outright majority on the first attempt, the two candidates with the most votes face off against each other in a decisive ballot the same day.
“If three countries vote for Šadžius at the first round, then Donohoe needs a very big majority among the others to be immediately elected,” said a government official.
While the race hasn’t yet formally started, speculation is running rife about how countries will position themselves.
A veteran finance minister, Šadžius is expected to gather support among countries bordering Russia, which are hawkish on defense, notably Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia.
Cuerpo, on the other hand, is likely to get the backing of pro-spending southern states such as Portugal and France.
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