President Donald Trump’s plan to use the U.S. naval base at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, as a detention center for 30,000 immigrants has encountered significant legal, logistical, and financial challenges. The idea, announced in January, took many within his administration by surprise and has struggled to gain traction ever since. While Trump remains committed to the plan, there is a growing consensus within the administration that the decision, driven by political motives, is impractical and costly. As agencies argue over responsibility for the operations and who is to blame for the setbacks, the reality of the plan’s shortcomings has become increasingly apparent.
One of the most significant issues is the cost of transporting immigrants to Guantánamo. The administration has often chosen to use military planes, such as the C-130, which are expensive to operate. A round trip on a C-130, which can carry nine immigrants, costs between $207,000 and $249,000, or roughly $23,000 to $27,000 per detainee. While charter planes used by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for deportation flights are cheaper, the administration has opted for military aircraft for optical reasons. Even with charter flights, however, the cost and logistics of transporting and detaining immigrants at Guantánamo far outweigh the expenses of keeping them on the mainland. Each flight requires at least one ICE official per migrant, as well as a medical team, further driving up costs.
The infrastructure at Guantánamo is also far from ready to handle the influx of immigrants. Tents constructed for detention lack basic amenities like air conditioning and running water, failing to meet ICE standards for detention facilities. The base’s capacity to hold the 30,000 immigrants Trump envisioned is nowhere near realization. At the time of the announcement, the base could only accommodate a tiny fraction of that number. These logistical challenges have led some officials to reconsider the plan, with alternatives such as using military bases in the U.S., like Fort Bliss in Texas, being deemed more cost-effective and efficient.
The situation at Guantánamo has also exposed internal conflicts within the administration. A power struggle emerged between the military and ICE over who would oversee the detention operations. The military, concerned about being blamed for the operation’s failure, initially surged resources to the base, deploying over 1,000 troops and support staff. However, the lack of clear guidance from the administration has left the military uncertain about its role and responsibilities. For weeks, DHS sent only one staffer and seven contractors to oversee the operation, forcing the military to step in and provide essential services, including interpretation for the immigrants.
The legal groundwork for the plan has also been called into question. Typically, the Defense Department ensures that an activity is legal before it begins, but in this case, the Pentagon has relied on a DHS memo interpreting its own policies to justify the use of military flights for transporting immigrants. Some congressional Democrats have expressed concerns that the flights rest on shaky legal ground. Moreover, the administration’s decision to use Guantánamo for detention has raised humanitarian concerns, as conditions at the base fail to meet federal court standards for immigration detention, which must be non-punitive and adhere to basic humanitarian norms.
Despite these challenges, the administration has continued to defend the plan, with White House spokesman Kush Desai emphasizing Trump’s mandate to deport “criminal illegal migrants” and pointing to a 627% increase in ICE arrests and a 90% drop in border crossings compared to the Biden era. However, the reality on the ground tells a different story. By mid-February, only 178 immigrants, all Venezuelan men, were detained at Guantánamo. Of these, 51 were classified as non-criminal, having committed no offense other than unlawful presence in the U.S. By February 20, all but one had been deported, with most sent back to Venezuela via Honduras. As the operation continues to slow down, with no flights scheduled since mid-February, it appears that a scaled-down version of the plan is the most likely outcome. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is considering bringing home some of the troops sent to Guantánamo, signaling a shift in the administration’s approach to this controversial and troubled plan.
