Climate Change is Coming for Space: How Global Warming is Clogging Earth’s Orbit

The Invisible Threat: Climate Change in Earth’s Orbit

Climate change is no longer just an Earth-bound problem. A recent study by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) reveals that as global temperatures rise due to the burning of coal, oil, and gas, the impact of climate change will extend far beyond our planet’s surface. By the end of the century, the space available for satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) could shrink by as much as one-third to 82%, depending on how much carbon pollution is released into the atmosphere. The culprit? A combination of cooling in the upper atmosphere and the accumulation of space debris, which is becoming an increasingly pressing issue.

The Cooling Atmosphere and Its Surprising Side Effect

The same greenhouse effect that warms the air near Earth’s surface has an unexpected consequence: it cools the upper layers of the atmosphere, where satellites orbit. This cooling reduces the density of the upper atmosphere, which in turn lessens the drag, or friction, that naturally pulls pieces of space debris toward Earth. Without this drag, debris doesn’t burn up as quickly, leading to a buildup of junk in space. “We rely on the atmosphere to clean up our debris,” said Will Parker, the study’s lead author and an astrodynamics researcher at MIT. “It’s trash. It’s garbage. And there are millions of pieces of it.”

The Growing Problem of Space Debris

The issue of space debris is already dire. Millions of pieces of junk, ranging in size from tiny fragments to objects as large as buses, are circling Earth at high speeds. These include remnants of old satellites, discarded rocket parts, and debris from collisions in space. For example, a 2009 crash between two satellites created thousands of new pieces of debris. While smaller particles burn up when they encounter the atmosphere, larger pieces remain suspended in orbit, posing a constant threat to operational satellites and crewed spacecraft.

Satellites: The Unsung Heroes of Modern Life

At the heart of this issue are the satellites that orbit our planet. According to the tracking website Orbiting Now, there are currently 11,905 satellites in operation, with 7,356 of them in low Earth orbit. These satellites are essential for modern life. They enable global communication, navigation, weather forecasting, and the monitoring of environmental and national security issues. For instance, GPS navigation, weather alerts, and international video calls all rely on satellites. As the number of satellites increases, so does the risk of collisions with debris, creating a dangerous cycle of destruction.

The Atmosphere’s Role in Cleaning Space

The upper atmosphere has long served as a natural cleanup system for Earth’s orbit. Drag caused by the density of the atmosphere pulls debris downward, where it burns up harmlessly. However, as the atmosphere cools and becomes less dense due to climate change, this cleaning process becomes less effective. Ingrid Cnossen, a space weather scientist at the British Antarctic Survey, noted that the density of the upper atmosphere at 250 miles (400 kilometers) above Earth’s surface is already decreasing by about 2% per decade. This trend is expected to worsen as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, leaving more debris in orbit for longer periods.

A Call to Action: Protecting Earth’s Orbit for the Future

The study highlights the urgent need for solutions to address the growing problem of space debris and the role of climate change in making it worse. Parker explained that the old assumption that space is vast and limitless is no longer valid. “There used to be this mantra that space is big. And so we can sort of not necessarily be good stewards of the environment because the environment is basically unlimited,” he said. But with tens of thousands of satellites planned for launch in the coming years, the importance of responsible space stewardship has never been greater.

As scientists and policymakers grapple with this issue, one thing is clear: climate change is not just an Earth-bound problem but a challenge that extends far beyond our planet. By addressing the root causes of global warming and developing new technologies to manage space debris, humanity can ensure the long-term sustainability of Earth’s orbit—for satellites, for space exploration, and for future generations. After all, as Parker put it, “It’s trash. It’s garbage. And there’s no other way to remove it.”