Summarize and humanize this content to 2000 words in 6 paragraphs in EnglishWe’re getting close to window lock for your 2025 bracket picks, which means it’s time for our last-minute March Madness tip sheet. You need some final swing thoughts on the NCAA men’s tournament before you click on your final answer. Seasoned players will recognize many of these timeless tips, but whether this is your first time filling out a bracket or you’ve lost count, it’s never a bad idea to run through this list one more time before you submit your picks.Your late-round picks are usually most importantThis is obvious to any experienced tournament player, but it’s still worth mentioning up front. Most contests stagger the scoring so that the points are heavily weighted to the end of the tournament. This means that if a non-Cinderella wins the whole thing, most likely, you will absolutely need to have that team as your champion, along with a few other shrewd picks. If a shocking team cuts down the nets, perhaps you can win your tournament without the title team properly selected. But more often than not, you’ll need the winner.Advertisement[Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem is back: Enter for a shot to win up to $50K]Most years I put most of my energy on the later picks. That’s where the glory is. That’s where the cheddar is, too.It’s important to recognize the No. 1 seeds are more heavily favored this year than in a more normal year. The gap is wider, and we need to mind that gap.According to Bet MGM, the four championship favorites are, naturally, the four No. 1 seeds: Duke (+325), Florida (+325), Auburn (+400) and Houston (+600). The fifth choice on the board is No. 2 seed Alabama, sliding down significantly to +1600. Tennessee checks in at +1800, and every other option is +2500 or higher.AdvertisementI get it, many NCAA tournament pools are dominated by chalk at the end. This year, be prepared for most of your opponents to settle on one of those top choices on the final line. Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem players illustrate the point — the No. 1 seeds represent the four most popular title picks.Most-popular title picks in Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem. (Photo by Hassan Ahmad/Yahoo Sports) (Hassan Ahmad)If a favored team wins and they’re heavily played in your group, that logically means the earlier-round games take on extra juice. Those pools are often won in the trenches.Let the point spread be your guideIf you simply focus on the NCAA seeding of each matchup, you’ll miss the perceived difference between some teams. Note that 11th-seeded North Carolina is a small favorite over No. 6 Ole Miss. Be aware that No. 12 Colorado State (on a 10-game winning streak) is favored over No. 5 Memphis.AdvertisementScanning the No. 5 seeds helps underscore how seeds are not created equal. Clemson is a 7.5-point favorite, Oregon is a 6.5-point favorite, Michigan is a 2.5-point favorite and Memphis, as discussed above, is an underdog.Bottom line, we trust Vegas more than we trust the seeding committee. There’s a ton of interest in the NCAA tournament and the books have incentive to put out a solid line. Obviously sports are unpredictable and these games are played by athletes in their teens and early 20s, so some results will fall nowhere close to the projected outcome. But if you want a good sense of team strength, Vegas is your friend. We use this hack all the time in fantasy football, and it’s just as useful here.The KenPom analytics site is also your friend. The committee slapped a No. 8 seed on Gonzaga. According to KenPom’s metrics, Gonzaga is the ninth-best team in the country. Should we trust the stats or some people in a conference room? It’s up to you.Your contest might have discernible biasesIn some bracket contests, you’ll know very little about your opposition and their likely picks and habits. That’s okay. But in an office or neighborhood contest, you might be able to sleuth out some of the expected selections. Use all the information you have available to you. Be mindful who the hometown team is. Be a good listener at the water cooler.AdvertisementAnd if your pool is based in an area tied to one of the favorites, be ready for an overwhelming pool bias. Why wouldn’t anyone in Houston want to ride with the No. 1 Cougars? In those pools, you have to make a choice — look for a seat on a crowded bandwagon, or perhaps accept some value if you’re willing to check your heart at the door. I’m not saying a contrarian approach is right for everybody, but there’s a value opportunity if you live in a region dominated by interest in one touted program.Remember college basketball is a coach’s gamePeruse the list of modern NCAA champions, you’ll see plenty of blue-blood programs and plenty of big name coaches, the names you know by heart. Roy Williams and Coach K; Jay Wright and Jim Calhoun; John Calipari and Billy Donovan. Dan Hurley’s star took off the last few years, while he was winning back-to-back titles with UConn.A great head coach like Dan Hurley can make an even bigger difference come NCAA tournament time, and with the success of your bracket. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) (Mitchell Layton via Getty Images)If you want to feel good about your brackets, you better feel good about the people in charge of your key teams. And the best tournament coaches don’t merely excel with in-game strategy and pre-game motivation, they’re also masters at working the referees and cultivating a foul or free-throw advantage.AdvertisementYou also might want to fade some programs because of who is in charge. I’ll generally believe in Rick Barnes when it comes to recruiting and handling the regular season. I’m never expecting him to show up at the Final Four (he’s made it only once), and he’s also proven to be a terrible ATS return in the tournament. Caveat emptor (or buyer beware).Final wordsOf course, it’s more likely than not that my picks will be wrong. There are a bunch of teams who can take down the title. And while you’re welcome to consider any of my advice (here are Cinderella picks and high seeds to fade), at the end of the day, it’s your team, it’s your bracket, it’s your dance. Take your best shot. Embrace the madness. Have some fun.
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