Summarize and humanize this content to 2000 words in 6 paragraphs in EnglishThe Masters has always been something of a paradox. The tournament is considered by many to be the best week of golf every year, and yet it lacks the chaotic unpredictability of the other Major championships. Augusta National is regarded as the best test in golf because the players who win each year are almost always among the best two dozen players in the world.Spoiler alert: A really good player will win the Masters this year. Those who love to bet wildcards in tournaments like the Cognizant Classic need to rein themselves in for this one. But here’s the good news for chaos-seeking fans: A long shot might sneak into the top 10.So let’s dial up some past analysis, check some recent data for clues, examine some course history and see if there’s a way to find value in a player capable of authoring a surprise finish this week at Augusta.First, let’s establish our arbitrary cut-off line for what a true long shot entails. Using BetMGM odds, we’ll only look at players who are at least 150-to-1 (+15000) to win the tournament. If sportsbooks are slapping a player with those kinds of chances, we can deduce not many people are expecting much from them right now. That line in the sand leaves us with 47 players.Thanks to some deep digging last year by Jordan Brenner on players with long odds who finished in the top 10, we have our first set of criteria to whittle down our potential dark-horse picks. Brenner found several commonalities that served as a good tool for weeding out players drawing dead as a way to focus on more lively long shots:
No long shot was both 24 years old or younger and a first-time Masters participant.
No long shot was over 56 years old.
They all played in a professional tournament within the month leading up to the Masters (excluding the Champions tour).
Fifteen of 20 long shots had already won a PGA Tour event in their career.
Sixteen of 20 long shots had previously finished in the top 10 of a Major.
Applied to this year’s field, those factors rule out the following players: Justin Hastings, Noah Kent, Hiroshi Tai, José Luis Ballester, Joe Highsmith, Rasmus Højgaard, Fred Couples, José María Olazábal, Bernhard Langer, Evan Beck, Mike Weir, Ángel Cabrera, Max Greyserman, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Thriston Lawrence, Nicolai Højgaard, Laurie Canter, Adam Schenk, Davis Riley, Rafael Campos, Brian Campbell, Patton Kizzire, Matt McCarty, Jhonattan Vegas, Nick Dunlap, Kevin Yu, Stephan Jaeger, J.T. Poston, Nico Echavarria, Nick Taylor and Michael Kim.So to review: Bid farewell to your pipe dreams of nailing a big bet on a young, upcoming phenom to make some real noise this week. At the other end of the spectrum, Father Time will remain undefeated. And DP World Tour wins mean nothing in Georgia.The last note on Major top-10 finishes also dropped some interesting names: Kim and Taylor have had really strong years, and Poston seems to perennially be a top-50 player, but these guys need to cut their teeth at one of the other Majors before ascending to the top 10 at Augusta.Now this is where the commonalities between past finishers basically ended. So to push even deeper than overarching trends, let’s enlist the RickRunGood database to use some strokes-gained data and narrow down our final 16 just a bit more.Augusta National is the gold standard for “sticky” course history. Players who play well here typically continue to play well. Those who generally struggle never make much of an impact. While ShotLink data (which will show specifics for off-the-tee, approach play, etc.) only goes back a few years, the RickRunGood database has a mix going back to 2008. Since Augusta is such a demanding course from tee to green, let’s see which of our 15 survivors have course histories that should cause concern.Negative strokes gained tee-to-green at Augusta National Eliminates: Billy Horschel, Danny Willett, Harris English, Zach JohnsonEnglish would be an interesting pick, given he’s made four of five cuts at the Masters, with his lone miss coming all the way back in 2014. Sadly, English has lost -0.29 strokes from tee to green while getting around at Augusta.Negative strokes gained tee-to-green over the last 50 roundsEliminates: Matthieu Pavon, Bubba Watson, Charl SchwartzelSeems like just yesterday that Pavon was in contention at the U.S. Open, but his form has fallen off an absolute cliff of late. Watson has lost some of that driving juice, and Schwartzel will not be able to chip and putt his way to a high finish.Evaluating our 9 remaining long shots Now that it’s been narrowed to a far more manageable number, let’s dig a little deeper into our last nine standing and see why each one would — or wouldn’t — be a good value bet for a top-10 finish.Sam Burns (Odds to make top 10: +750)There is no denying Burns’ talent, but the bottom fell out for him in 2025. Not only is he missing cuts, but he’s missing them while getting 17.9 strokes gained on the greens. The bet here would be that Burns pairs his putter with a week of good ball-striking, but given that the 28-year-old hasn’t gained off the tee and on approach in the same tournament yet this year, it seems like a risky bet.Lucas Glover (+800)Glover has a negative strokes-gained mark at Augusta over his career, but most of that was due to a balky putter that almost derailed his career. Glover not only gained strokes putting last year at the Masters but has done so in six of his eight starts this season. The concern would obviously be that Glover is riding an unsustainably hot putter, but ever since changing to a broomstick putter, the wily vet has generally been gaining on the greens.Matt Fitzpatrick (+850)The former U.S. Open champ has racked up a shocking number of rounds at Augusta over his career (38), with only one missed cut. He also has a T7, T10 and T14 to his name. That’s the good news. The bad news for taking these odds is that Fitzpatrick has been a train wreck in 2025. He’s lost strokes on approach in four of seven starts while also missing three cuts.Thomas Detry (+900)This is Detry’s first time at the Masters, but his recent run of Majors is undoubtedly promising, with a T13 at the 2023 British Open followed by a T4 at the 2024 PGA Championship and a T14 at the U.S. Open later that year. Maybe it’s a fluke, or maybe Detry’s play on the big stage makes him the new Will Zalatoris?Tom Hoge (+1000)Hoge is one of the best approach players in the sport, but until recently, his driving has cost him strokes. His recent T5 and T3 runs showed improved accuracy, yet his Major championship record is spotty, and Hoge hasn’t consistently come up big in contending spots on the PGA Tour.Max Homa (+1200)Homa has missed five straight cuts, fired his longtime caddie and can’t seem to hit an approach shot anywhere near a green. Golf is an amazing game considering where Homa was a year ago, when he tied for third at the Masters.Cam Davis (+1200)Davis certainly can pop out of nowhere to contend, but so far in 2025, his driver hasn’t been anywhere near as consistent as it was during his run-up to T4 at the 2023 PGA and T12 at last year’s Masters. If his up-and-down ball striking wasn’t already a cause for concern, Davis has lost 6.7 strokes putting in his past two starts.Chris Kirk (+1400)Kirk’s PGA Tour season has been underwhelming, but the University of Georgia grad has a sneaky good history at Augusta, gaining 0.56 strokes per round. A T23 and T16 at past Masters means Kirk has a ceiling not all that far from the top 10. The problem for Kirk is that he has completely lost his putter in 2025, only gaining strokes in one start.Austin Eckroat (+1400)Eckroat is the answer to the question, “What happens to a flusher when they stop hitting shots flush?” Eckroat has missed six cuts this year and lost 7.8 strokes on approach over his past two tournaments. If you decide to ride with Eckroat, you might be doing some flushing of your own. Namely, involving your money and a toilet.(Photo by Harry How / Getty Images)
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