Every year, fantasy baseball drafts are filled with opportunities to snag undervalued players who are primed for a bounce-back season. These players often fall through the cracks because fantasy managers tend to focus on the most recent performance, even if that performance was an anomaly in an otherwise solid career. The key is to identify players who had legitimate reasons for struggling last season, whether it was due to injuries or bad luck, and who have the skills and circumstances to rebound in 2025. This year, there are several players who fit this mold, and targeting them could give you a significant edge in your fantasy league.
One of the most intriguing bounce-back candidates is Bo Bichette of the Toronto Blue Jays. Bichette, who had never hit below .290 in his career before last season, got off to a slow start in 2024 before injuries derailed his year. A calf injury and a fractured finger limited him to just 15 games after June 15. Despite this, Bichette is now entering a contract year at just 27 years old, and there’s every reason to believe that last season’s struggles were a fluke rather than the start of a decline. His track record of strong plate skills and durability makes him a prime target for fantasy managers looking to capitalize on a rebound season. With a clean bill of health heading into 2025, Bichette is poised to remind everyone why he’s been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball.
Another player who could make a significant impact this season is Josh Lowe of the Tampa Bay Rays. Lowe’s 2024 season was a tale of two halves. He struggled mightily in the first half, but after the All-Star break, he rediscovered his form, posting a .262 batting average, 5 home runs, and 17 stolen bases in 62 games. Lowe’s combination of power and speed is rare, and he has the tools to replicate his standout 2023 season when he hit 20 home runs and swiped 32 bases. The key for Lowe will be improving his strikeout rate, which sat at 31.8% last year. If he can make more consistent contact, he could be one of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball. With his Elite speed and power potential, Lowe is a high-upside pick who could far outperform his current draft position.
Nolan Jones of the Colorado Rockies is another player who fell short of expectations last season but has the potential to bounce back in a big way. Jones was a breakout star in 2023, hitting 20 home runs and stealing 20 bases in just 106 games, but injuries and regression derailed his 2024 campaign. Despite playing half his games at Coors Field, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball, Jones saw his batted-ball metrics decline significantly, and a back injury limited him to just 79 games. Fantasy managers have seemingly given up on him, as evidenced by his low draft position, but Jones is still just 26 years old and has the potential to return to his 20-20 form. With good health and a return to his previous batted-ball profile, Jones could be one of the steals of the draft.
Christopher Morel of the Tampa Bay Rays is perhaps the most fascinating bounce-back candidate of the bunch. Morel had a season in 2024 that can only be described as unlucky. He ranked among the top 10 in baseball in the gaps between his actual performance and his expected statistics, suggesting that he was snakebitten by bad luck. Despite a career-best walk rate (10.0%) and a lower strikeout rate (26.0%), Morel’s average exit velocity dropped nearly 2 mph to 89.2, and he saw his overall production decline. However, the Rays’ move to a new home stadium that’s expected to be extremely hitter-friendly could be just what Morel needs to unlock his power potential. If Morel can rediscover his previous exit velocity and maintain his improved plate discipline, he could be a 30-home run hitter in 2025, making him an excellent value pick.
Thairo Estrada, now a member of the Colorado Rockies, is another player who has a chance to rebound after a disappointing 2024 season. Estrada was once seen as a reliable mid-round draft pick, but his stock has plummeted after a season that was derailed by a wrist injury and a slow start. Despite these challenges, Estrada landed in the perfect situation when he signed with the Rockies, a team that plays half its games at the hitter-friendly Coors Field. Estrada’s ability to make consistent contact could serve him well in his new environment, and there’s reason to believe he could exceed expectations with a modest goal of 10 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a .255 batting average. At his current draft position, Estrada is a low-risk, high-reward pick who could provide strong value.
For those looking to add a veteran presence to their fantasy roster, Justin Verlander of the San Francisco Giants is an intriguing option. Verlander, who will turn 42 just after Opening Day, is coming off a season where he was among the unluckiest pitchers in baseball. His actual ERA was a somewhat pedestrian 5.48, but his xERA (which estimates what his ERA should have been based on more predictable outcomes) was a sparkling 3.78. Verlander’s ability to limit walks and his tendency to give up home runs played a significant role in his inflated ERA, but a move to Oracle Park, one of the best pitchers’ parks in baseball, could help suppress those home runs and allow him to thrive. While betting on a 42-year-old pitcher to stay healthy is always a gamble, Verlander’s peripherals suggest that he still has plenty left in the tank. If he can stay on the mound, he could be a steal for fantasy managers.
One final player worth keeping an eye on is David Bednar of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Bednar was one of the best relievers in baseball from 2021 to 2023, but his performance fell off a cliff last season, as he posted a 5.77 ERA. A combination of struggles with the long ball and a loss of control in the second half, along with a month-long absence due to an oblique strain, contributed to his decline. However, Bednar’s fastball still averaged a career-best 97.3 mph last season, and he enters 2025 without any real competition for the closer role in Pittsburgh. If Bednar can get back to his pre-2024 form, he could be a top-tier closer and a valuable asset for fantasy managers. Given his current draft position, Bednar is a high-upside pick who could provide strong returns if he can stay healthy and rediscover his form.
In conclusion, these seven players—Bo Bichette, Josh Lowe, Nolan Jones, Christopher Morel, Thairo Estrada, Justin Verlander, and David Bednar—represent some of the best bounce-back opportunities in fantasy baseball for the 2025 season. Each of them has a clear path to rebounding from their disappointing 2024 campaigns, whether it’s due to injuries healing, bad luck evening out, or a change in circumstances that could help them thrive. By targeting these players in your draft, you could set yourself up for a successful season and potentially gain an edge over your competition.
