The concept of earning 40 points as a benchmark for Premier League survival has long been a guiding principle for newly promoted clubs or those battling relegation. Historically, this total has often been seen as the magic number that guarantees staying up. Over the past two decades, however, this threshold has gradually declined. For instance, in the 2010-11 season, both Blackpool and Birmingham City were relegated despite earning 39 points, while West Ham United suffered the same fate in 2002-03 with an even higher total of 42 points. This downward trend suggests that the competition has become fiercer, and clubs are finding it increasingly difficult to accumulate points.
In recent years, the average points required to avoid relegation has continued to drop. Between 1999 and 2022, the average points total for the team finishing 18th and being relegated was around 35.6. However, this average has fallen further to 34 points over the past two seasons, with the 2023-24 season being particularly neuronal. Last season, all three promoted sides—Luton Town, Leeds United, and Leicester City—were relegated, with Luton Town finishing 18th on just 26 points. This season, history appears to be repeating itself, as the three newly promoted clubs—Leicester City, Wolverhampton Wanderers, and Everton—currently occupy the bottom three spots in the table. Leicester City, sitting in 18th place with 17 points, is just two points behind Wolves in 17th but faces a daunting battle to avoid the drop.
Leicester City’s situation is precarious. With 14 games remaining, they have averaged a meager 0.7 points per game this season. If they continue at this rate, they are projected to finish the season with just 27 points, a total that has rarely been enough to avoid relegation in recent years. Last season, Luton Town’s 26 points were not enough to stay up, and Leicester will need a significant improvement to avoid a similar fate. The challenge is compounded by their next six fixtures, which are ranked among the toughest in the league. They face Arsenal, Brentford, West Ham United, Chelsea, Manchester United, and Manchester City, a run of games that will test their resolve and ability to compete against some of the league’s strongest sides.
One of the key areas Leicester must address is their defensive fragility. They have kept just one clean sheet in 24 league games and have conceded 53 goals at an alarming rate of 2.2 per game. This defensive instability has been a major contributor to their struggles, and their recent form under manager Ruud van Nistelrooy has been particularly worrying. Since Van Nistelrooy took charge in December, Leicester have won just two of their 11 games, earning only seven points in the process. This places them among the worst-performing teams in the league over that period. Additionally, Leicester’s home form has been a cause for concern, with the team losing their last four Premier League games at the King Power Stadium without scoring a single goal—a streak that has not been seen since Norwich City’s struggles in the 2019-20 season.
The pressure on Leicester City is not just on the pitch but also off it. A fan protest organized by a group called Project Reset is planned before their upcoming game against Arsenal, calling for more transparency and accountability from the club’s hierarchy. This unrest adds an extra layer of tension to an already difficult situation. For Van Nistelrooy and his players, every game between now and the end of the season is crucial. To have any chance of survival, Leicester will need to secure at least 18 points from their remaining 14 games—a target that equates to six wins or five wins and three draws. This is a tall order, especially given their recent form and the difficulty of their upcoming fixtures.
The final stretch of the season could be one of the most dramatic in the league, with Leicester facing all three of their relegation rivals—Southampton, Ipswich Town, and Wolverhampton Wanderers—in their last five games. These matches will likely determine their fate, but Leicester cannot afford to wait until then to start picking up points. They need to improve immediately, starting with their next set of games. While the recent trend suggests that the points required for survival might be lower than usual this season, Leicester cannot rely on that trend continuing. They must take matters into their own hands and find a way to turn their season around. Only time will tell if they can rise to the challenge and avoid the drop.
