Summarize and humanize this content to 2000 words in 6 paragraphs in EnglishLOS ANGELES — What explains John Tavares’ goal-scoring bonanza this season?On the one hand, it’s pretty simple: A world-class shooter is having the best shooting season of his NHL career — and in a contract year, no less.Tavares has scored 33 goals on 19 percent shooting.The timing is curious, and not only because Tavares is 34 now and in his 16th NHL season — a time, in other words, when he should be slowing down. It’s also odd because last season Tavares had the worst shooting season of his career: 29 goals in 80 games on 10 percent shooting and a mid-season dry spell that saw him score once in 13 games.From one extreme to the other, then. But that doesn’t feel like the whole story.Arguably no player on the Maple Leafs today (no player that I’ve seen) spends more time on the ice fine-tuning his game than Tavares. And so, in Tavares’ estimation, part of his scoring resurgence this season is tied to that never-ending refinement. To huddling with Patrick O’Sullivan, the former NHLer turned Leafs development coach, after practice on the regular to work on shooting off the left leg, off the right leg, forehand, backhand, from the slot, from the net-front, all of the varying shots that Tavares will attempt in games.“Certainly around the bottom of the circles to the crease obviously is an important area for me,” Tavares said. “That’s probably where I get most of my chances, when you look at all my shots. Just being good in that area.”Ensuring strengths remain strengths is a big thing for Tavares. And those strengths have been, well, strong this season.Tavares has been particularly lethal from mid-range, shooting almost 25 percent there — just about the best there is and good for the NHL’s 97th percentile this season according to NHL EDGE tracking.There’s another side to the story that’s relevant to all of that: While he’s never shot better in the NHL, Tavares’ shot volume hasn’t been this low since he was a teenager with the New York Islanders. He still shoots fairly often relative to most NHLers, just not nearly as much as before.Tavares is mustering 8.7 shots on 14.9 attempts per 60 minutes this season. Those are the lowest marks of his Leafs career as well as the lowest of any year since he was a rookie on the Island.
SeasonGPGoals/60Shots/60Attempts/60S%2009-108217.614.112.92010-11791.19.616.111.92011-12821.110.216.510.82012-13481.79.817.417.32013-14591.291612.82014-15821.39.816.713.72015-16781.39.617.613.22016-17771.19.91810.82017-18821.49.516.514.32018-19821.81118.616.42019-20631.39.617.413.22020-21561.19.616.411.72021-22791.1101811.42022-23801.511.819.7132023-24801.211.720.310.42024-25651.78.711.719.2
The tumble has really come at five-on-five, where Tavares is managing only 6.7 shots on 11.7 attempts per 60. Last season, he fired nine shots on almost 17 attempts on a per-hour basis.Tavares hasn’t struggled to generate shots like this at five-on-five, again, since he was 19. His line that year: 6.3 shots on 11.7 attempts per 60.And yet Tavares has scored a whole whack of goals at five-on-five so far — 18 in all, already more, through only 65 games, than any of the previous five seasons.
Season5-on-5 goals5-on-5 S%2019-201392020-21119.72021-22159.92022-2316102023-241592024-251817.3
Tavares is shooting over 17 percent, the best mark of his career, topping even his debut season with the Leafs when he scored an astounding 33 five-on-five goals while shooting 16.5 percent.Tavares is also shooting nearly 21 percent on the power play, the third-best mark of his career. His 11 power-play goals are already tied for the fourth-most he has scored in a single season.To top it all off, he has also matched a career high with four empty-net goals.“Maybe at times I’ve just been a little more consistent,” Tavares said of his shooting. “But maybe that’s easy to say when it’s going in.”It’s the steep drop-off in shot generation that’s worth pondering for the Leafs’ front office. Is that a sign of predictable decline lurking just below the surface of all that scoring? Is it a product of head coach Craig Berube’s system, which has the Leafs generating fewer shots and opportunities overall? A combination of the two?In looking beyond this season, Brad Treliving and company have to be wondering what kind of impact Tavares can have if his shot attempts continue to tick downward and the shooting inevitably cools off somewhat. What is he worth to them then — especially if playing centre full-time eventually stops being part of the equation?Tavares’ career shooting percentage before this season was 12.8 percent. That kind of shooting on this kind of volume would put him at about 22 goals right now — 11 fewer than his current total. Shooting at 10 percent, like last season, would have Tavares at 17 goals.Which means the Leafs, if they decide to extend Tavares’ contract, probably have to readjust their expectations even after this season’s explosion and begin to envision him more as someone likely to provide 20-25 goals in the next season or two, and 15-20 after that.Tavares has already become one of only 12 players since 2010 to score 30 or more in an age-34 or older season. He is among the greatest shooters in recent NHL history and will soon join the exclusive 500 goals club (48 members). He is at 489 and has a chance to climb into the top 40 all-time if he keeps scoring at a reasonable clip for the foreseeable future.There’s no doubt that he will continue to work at ensuring that it remains a strength.Another season like this, though? That’s unlikely.—Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey-Reference, Stathead and NHL EDGE(Top photo: Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)
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